Cardiff 2028: A capital in transformation

Walking through Cardiff today and the signs of change are everywhere—construction cranes, packed cafes, and a city centre that feels increasingly dynamic. With a growing population, ambitious regeneration projects, and a swelling economy, Cardiff is becoming one of the UK’s most exciting urban success stories.

Recent statistics show Cardiff is the fastest-growing major city in the UK, with a population increase of around 24,000 over just two years—largely driven by young professionals in their twenties. This shift brings significant opportunity: a growing consumer base, an expanding workforce, and a wave of energy shaping demand for everything from housing and transport to leisure and innovation.

Employment is rising too, with key sectors such as finance, tech, life sciences and hospitality seeing strong growth. Cardiff’s financial sector is the fastest-growing in the UK, and the city is carving out a name as a hub for both enterprise and creativity. Large-scale developments are reinforcing this reputation—most notably at Atlantic Wharf, which will soon host a 15,000-capacity arena, a new digital-first venue, and over a million square feet of mixed-use space including homes and offices.

But Cardiff’s upward momentum comes at a time when businesses face significant pressures. Rising costs are testing even the most resilient firms.

Chief among these is the increase in employer National Insurance contributions—from 13.8% to 15%—which has pushed up employment costs across the board. According to the British Chambers of Commerce, this has led businesses to raise prices, freeze recruitment, or pull back investment plans. SMEs, which make up a large share of Cardiff’s economy, have been hit particularly hard.

At the same time, business rates remain a sore point. The Welsh Government’s 2024-25 draft budget extended a 40% relief for hospitality and leisure businesses, which has been welcomed by many in the sector. However, this relief is only temporary, and there are growing calls for long-term reform. Without it, small businesses—especially those in retail and hospitality—face the real prospect of higher bills just as they’re recovering from the shocks of recent years.

This dual challenge—of higher taxes and uncertain rate relief—threatens to stall the momentum Cardiff has worked so hard to build. For all the optimism about regeneration, investment, and growth, these financial pressures could stifle the very businesses that give Cardiff its character and economic strength.

Despite this, the city continues to push forward. A thriving leisure and tourism economy draws around 20 million visitors annually, contributing over £1.6 billion in spend. A fast-growing life sciences sector and new city-centre developments promise further economic diversification. Cardiff is also cementing its role as a destination for conferences and events, supported by a dedicated city team and one of the UK’s most engaged ambassador networks.

The direction is clear: Cardiff is not just growing; it’s maturing. But sustainable growth means creating an environment where businesses—large and small—can flourish. That means not only investing in infrastructure and regeneration, but also addressing the financial strain many firms now face.

Cardiff’s future is bright, but we must ensure the conditions are right for success. A collaborative approach between business, local government and national policymakers is essential. With thoughtful reform and sustained support, the capital can continue its transformation—confident, creative, and economically inclusive.

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